dcsimg
Thu Apr 19, 2018 17:43
Login Password    Forgot password?    Member's Privilege  
 Advanced Search
   FEATURES:
   Oceanwide IR
   Gazette
   Learning
   Newsletter
   Info Center
Keith Weiner | Michael Pento | Kam Hung Yu | Jean Li | Liz Kim | Laurent Ettedgui | OilPrice.com | 黃韋皓   | Chloe Luo
Keith Weiner
Keith Weiner is CEO of Monetary Metals, a precious metals fund company in Scottsdale, Arizona. He is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. He is founder of DiamondWare, a software company sold to Nortel in 2008, and he currently serves as president of the Gold Standard Institute USA. Weiner attended university at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and earned his PhD at the New Austrian School of Economics. He blogs about gold and the dollar, and his articles appear on Zero Hedge, Kitco, and other leading sites. As a leading authority and advocate for rational monetary policy, he has appeared on financial television, The Peter Schiff Show and as a speaker at FreedomFest. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.
Click here to toggle text size
Gold-Silver Divergence
18 Apr 2017

This was a holiday-shorted week, due to Good Friday, and we are posting this Monday evening due to today being a holiday in much of the world.

 

Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand.

 

Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At least for a while. The other is that the fundamentals change. There is no guarantee that the prices of the metals will reach the fundamental price of a given day. Think of the fundamentals as gravity, not the strongest force in the system but inexorable, tugging every day.

 

This week, the fundamentals of both metals moved, though not together. We will take a look at that below, but first, the price and ratio charts.

 

       The Prices of Gold and Silver

 

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It didn’t move much this week.

 

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

 

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

 

Here is the gold graph.

 

       The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

 

The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) is in a gentle rising trend for about six months. This week, the cobasis was down slightly. Not a surprise given the (relatively) big price move of +$33. Nor does it appear to break the trend.

 

Our calculated fundamental price of gold is at $1,301, just above the market price.

 

Now let’s look at silver.

 

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

 

 

In silver, it’s much harder to say that there is an uptrend in the cobasis. Our indicator of scarcity is at the same level it was in October. Back then, the price of silver was $17.60 and on Thursday it was just about 90 cents higher.

 

The fundamental price back then was just under $15. Now it’s just under $16.50. This happens to be down about 40 cents this week.

 

With the fundamental of gold rising, and that of silver falling, it’s not surprising that the fundamental gold-silver ratio is up to a bit over 79.

Disclaimer: The above views are the opinions of the author or his/her company and do not represent the views of Quamnet.
Share :TwitThis   Facebook   LinkedIn       Forward to a friend
Gettin’ High on Bubbles 17 Apr 2018
Open Letter to Congressman Alex Mooney on his Bill to Define the Dollar as a Fixed Weight of Gold 13 Apr 2018
Milking the Savers 10 Apr 2018
The Dollar Cancer and the Gold Cure 06 Apr 2018
The Skyrocket Phase 04 Apr 2018
Phone Call from a Bank Manipulator 03 Apr 2018
Backwardation, the Bank of England, and Falling Prices 29 Mar 2018
Slaves to Government Debt Paper 27 Mar 2018
Standing Ready to Lease Gold 20 Mar 2018
Open Letter to GATA 15 Mar 2018
Market Update
Watch List
Quamnet Research
First comment: Comparison of CR (390) and CRC (1186) 12:44
Quammentary: Trust your first feeling, this is very important for investment market survival 18 Apr 2018
CRC (1186): 2017 results were not bad 18 Apr 2018
First Comment: Money supply is the most important factor, friends 18 Apr 2018
RMB may continue its appreciation trend given Donald Trump view 17 Apr 2018
Quamnet:

Help  |  Sitemap  |  About Us  |  Contact Us  |  Advertise with Us  |  Disclaimers  |  Privacy     
China Oceanwide International Financial Limited:
A founding member of:
MyQuamnet members get:
[Free Real Time Stock Quote] [Stock Charting Analysis] [Chart] [Hong Kong Stock Chart] [Industry Analysis] [Hong Kong Stocks Information] [Warrants] [CBBC] [Depositary Receipt] [Financial News] [Hong Kong Stock News] [US Stock News] [HKEx News] [New Stock] [Hong Kong Stocks Analysis] [Stocks Watch List] [Portfolio] [Finance Seminar] [Investment Seminar] [FOREX] [FX]
Quamnet Financial Services:
[Hong Kong Equity] [Hong Kong Stock] [Hong Kong Stock Quote] [Stock Quote] [Bid] [Ask] [Last Price] [Open] [Previous Close] [Board Lot] [Market Cap] [P/E] [P/B] [Real Time Price] [Past Prices] [Day High] [Day Low] [52 Week High] [52 Week Low] [Buy Ratio] [Sell Ratio] [Volume][Turnover] [Warrants Quote] [CBBC Quote] [Finance] [Stocks] [Investment] [Block Trades] [Chart Analysis] [Technical Indicator]
[Hong Kong Listed Companies Information] [Hong Kong Stocks Analysis] [HK Stock Quote] [Prospectus] [IPOs News] [Market Move News] [GEM] [Hang Seng Index] [HKCEI][Shenzhen A, B Index] [Shanghai A, B Index] [Hang Seng China AH Premium Index] [Forex] [Commodities Futures] [Gazette] [Commentary][Financial Columnists] [Fund House Report] [Shenzhen Stock Market] [Shanghai Stock Market] [Hong Kong Islamic Index] [Stock Trading Strategy] [Stock Monitoring Tools] [Commerce & Industry] [Financial] [Telecom, Media & Technology] [Conglomerates] [Healthcare] [Transportation] [Energy] [Property] [Utilities] [Global Alliance Partners] [Asset Management] [Securities Brokerage] [Personal Financial Advisory Solutions] [Futures] [US Stock] [ETFs] [HSI Futures] [Options] [Japanese yen] [US dollar] [Euro] [Pound sterling] [Australian dollar] [New Zealand dollar] [Canadian dollar]

Quamnet Subscription Services:
[Quam Research Main][Quam Research][Ask Quam][Columnists][Quam Wise][Market Move Signal] [Warrant Monitor][Investment Tools] [Quam Stock Monitor] [Stock Quote Ticker][Smart Database][Metastock][Quam Radar][Stable Growth Portfolio] [Aggressive Growth Portfolio][Fund Analysis][Wealth Management][Market Analysis] [Investment Base][Red Chip][H Stock][Bond][Mid - Short Term Stocks Investment Recommendations][Mid - Short Term Investors] [The Daily Perspective] [The Macro Perspective] [Economic Review] [Investment Monitoring List] [Paul Pong] [Global Market Analysis][Weekly Market Analysis][Virtual Stock Portfolio][Virtual Fund Portfolio] [Strategy updating] [Investment Strategy] [Infinity Profit] [Starman] [Knight of Stocks] [ Fong Sun Hop ] [Witty Minds] [Leon Mui] [Small-cap Sniper] [ValueNavigation][Helen Lee] [StockKing's Edict][StockKing Hui] [Thunderstock] [Roy Lau] [ Comprehensive Investment] [Fung & Joe] [Trading Universe] [Vincent Luk] [Simon Choy] [Inverse Trading] [Alvin Lai] [ Felix FX] [Felix Man]