美國聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）於本港時間週四凌晨結束為期兩天的政策會議，宣布維持聯邦基金利率目標區間在4.25%至4.5%不變，此決策符合市場普遍預期。然而，會後發表的政策聲明語調明顯轉趨謹慎，直言經濟前景的不確定性已「進一步加劇」，並特別點出失業率攀升與通脹壓力回升的雙重風險正在擴大。
此次利率決策反映聯儲局面臨的政策困境：一方面，近期通脹數據反彈削弱了降息迫切性；另一方面，就業市場降溫跡象又限制了進一步收緊政策的空間。聲明中對風險平衡的重新評估，暗示聯儲局正從「抗通脹優先」逐步轉向更均衡的政策立場。市場解讀這為後續利率動向鋪路，若經濟數據持續惡化，可能提前開啟降息周期。
聯儲局議息聲明原文：
盡管淨出口的波動影響了數據，但最近的指標表明經濟活動仍在穩健增長。失業率近幾個月來已穩定在較低水平，勞動力市場狀況仍然穩固。通脹仍然略高。
委員會力求實現長期內最大就業和通脹率為2%。對經濟前景的不確定性進一步增加。委員會關注其雙重使命兩方面的風險，並認為失業率和通脹率上升的風險已增加。
為支持其目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在4-1/4至4-1/2%。在考慮進一步調整聯邦基金利率目標區間的程度和時間時，委員會將仔細評估新入資料、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡。委員會將繼續減少其美國國債、機構債務和代理機構抵押支持證券的持有量。委員會堅定承諾支持最大就業，並將通脹恢復到2%的目標。
在評估貨幣政策適當立場時，委員會將繼續監控新信息對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將準備根據需要調整貨幣政策立場。委員會的評估將考慮廣泛信息，包括勞動力市場狀況、通脹壓力和通脹預期，以及金融和國際發展等讀數。
進行貨幣政策行動的投票包括Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
英文原文：
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
聲明連結：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250507a.htm
作者：MoneyClub
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